3 Economic Shifts Impacting Back-to-School 2025 And What Store Owners Must Do Right Now
Jul 28, 2025
Back-to-school isn’t just a shopping season—it’s an economic snapshot. In 2025, shoppers are kicking off earlier, buying smarter, and stretching their budgets like never before. According to NRF research, these trends are disrupting how families shop—and how savvy store owners should respond.
1. Early Bird Isn’t Just a Catchphrase, It’s Reality
Nearly 26% of BTS shoppers had already started buying supplies by early June—up from 22% in 2024 and 17% in 2019.
Why this matters
- Shoppers are spreading out their budgets and hunting early deals.
- Trade policy concerns are fueling fear of future price hikes—74% of early buyers worry about tariffs making items more expensive later.
Action Steps for Your Store
- Launch promotions in June or early July.
- Create “Early Bird” specials that highlight value.
- Double-down on marketing now—emails, social posts, even window displays that say “shop early & save.”
2. Cents-and-Sense Spending Means Shoppers Are Budgeting Tight
Last year, families budgeting for K–12 spent about $875, while college budgets reached $1,365. This year, 76% of shoppers expect prices to be higher.
The shift?
Shopper behavior is changing:
- Lower-income families are buying just what’s needed now and delaying other purchases 52% plan to take a "buy what you need" approach.
- Consumers are shifting toward discount stores and value-driven purchases.
What You Can Do
- Offer value-priced BTS bundles and wallet-friendly kits.
- Highlight markdowns, clearance, and generic-brand alternatives.
- Consider financing or tiered pricing on bigger-ticket items (e.g., tablets, backpacks) to make purchases more approachable.
3. “Buy for Today” Is Becoming the New Norm
Economic pressure means shoppers are turning cautious: fewer are stocking up for the year, especially in lower-income brackets .
Why this matters
- Shoppers are adopting "just-in-time" buying to stretch budgets.
- This behavior shifts the tempo of your sales — more frequent, smaller transactions rather than big one-time purchases.
Store Moves to Consider
- Stock more essentials while reducing bulk quantities of big-ticket items.
- Run “Part 1” / “Part 2” promos — e.g., Stage 1: Notebooks & pens, Stage 2 (3-4 weeks later): Backpacks & dorm supplies.
- Stay agile with inventory—track what’s moving and restock quickly.
3 Store Strategies You Can Launch Today
Combine these themes into a strategic plan:
- Early Promotions + Inventory Agility
Begin marketing now. Track stock closely, update in-store displays mid-season. - Budget-Friendly Offers
Bundle essentials in value packs. Consider buy-now-pay-later for tech purchases. - Phased Stocking & Promotions
Cater to early buyers and later shoppers with targeted, sequenced offers.
Through this season, your store can meet customers where they are—starting early and buying smart. Use your store’s agility to capitalize on both the early buzz and the cautious later trends.
"This Back-to-School season, remember: shoppers are planning early and spending smart. Meet them early with value bundles — and stay ready to pivot mid-season. When you're proactive, you're profitable."
Need Help Building Your Back-to-School Plan?
Our Retail Success Hub offers:
- Done-for-you POS setup for promo scheduling and inventory tracking
- Coaching and ready-to-use templates for phased pricing, bundles, and email flows
- 1-on-1 guidance from Rachael to customize your seasonal strategy
Let’s make Back-to-School 2025 your smartest season yet.
Book a call with Rachael today 👉 https://www.thrivingretailer.com/free-consultation
